| 李 青,魏 宇.2024年橡胶期货市场回顾及2025年展望[J].橡胶科技,2025,23(2):0065-0073. |
二维码（扫一下试试看！） |
| 2024年橡胶期货市场回顾及2025年展望 |
| Review of Rubber Futures Market in 2024 and Outlook for 2025 |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-11 修订日期：2024-12-11 |
| DOI：10.12137/j.issn.2095-5448.2025.02.0065 |
| 中文关键词: 天然橡胶 合成橡胶 期货市场 供应 需求 |
| 英文关键词: natural rubber synthetic rubber futures market supply demand |
| 基金项目: |
| 中图分类号: |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 465 |
| 全文下载次数: 315 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 2024年天然橡胶期货市场无论是关注度、波动率还是价格底部均显著上升，2025年天然橡胶期货市场行情的主要驱动因素与2024年一样来自供给端。尽管天然橡胶供给情况仍存在不确定性，但供需缺口维持并持续扩大的可能性在增加。2025年天然橡胶期货价格重心进一步上移的概率偏大，RU合约价格的波动区间为每吨16 500～20 000元，NR合约价格的波动区间为每吨13 500～17 000元。2024年合成橡胶期货市场走势呈M形，2025年丁二烯的供给压力显著提升，但在需求维持乐观的预期下，原料端的节奏变化将成为影响合成橡胶期货市场行情的重要因素，成本继续下行的预期势必会对其价格形成拖拽，2025年第1—2季度合成橡胶期货市场大概率会维持弱势运行，但是如果天然橡胶盘面能出现较为强势的上行表现，大概率会对合成橡胶盘面形成一定提振作用，但合成橡胶与天然橡胶的价差可能将维持高位。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The natural rubber futures market in 2024 has significantly increased in terms of attention，volatility，and price bottom. The main driving factors for the natural rubber futures market in 2025 will be anticipated to remain supply-side dynamics，just like in 2024. Although uncertainties persist regarding supply of natural rubber，the likelihood of a sustained and widening supply-demand gap increases. The probability of further upward shift in the center of gravity of natural rubber futures prices in 2025 is high，with a fluctuation range of 16 500～20 000 yuan per ton for RU contract price and 13 500～17 000 yuan per ton for NR contract price. The trend of the synthetic rubber futures market in 2024 is M-shaped，and the supply pressure of butadiene will significantly increase in 2025.However，under the expectation of optimistic demands，changes in the pace of raw materials will become an important factor affecting the market situation of synthetic rubber futures. The expectation of continued cost decline is bound to drag down the price，and the synthetic rubber futures market is likely to maintain a weak run in the first and second quarters of 2025. However，if the natural rubber market can show a relatively strong rise，it is also likely to have a certain boosting effect on the synthetic rubber market， although the price difference between synthetic rubber and natural rubber may remain high. |
|
|
查看全文
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
