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| 2023年橡胶期货市场回顾及2024年展望 |
| Review of Rubber Futures Market in 2023 and Outlook for 2024 |
| Received:December 13, 2023 Revised:December 13, 2023 |
| DOI：10.12137/j.issn.2095-5448.2024.02.0065 |
| 中文关键词: 天然橡胶；合成橡胶；期货市场；供应；需求 |
| 英文关键词: natural rubber；synthetic rubber；futures market；supply；demand |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2024年天然橡胶期货市场行情主要的驱动因素将与2023年一样来自于供给端。随着2023年天然橡胶减产格局的逐步明确，2024年全球天然橡胶供应大概率将维持低增长或小幅负增长，需求持平或微增，大环境带来的提振作用值得期待。2024年天然橡胶期货价格重心进一步上移的概率偏大，但难以出现连续大幅上涨的情况，波动区间为每吨13 000～16 000元。合成橡胶期货上市时间较短，受原油价格大幅波动以及资金博弈影响偏大，预计价格波动区间较大。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The driving factors of the natural rubber futures market in 2024 will come from the supply side，just like in 2023. With the gradual clarification of the natural rubber production reduction pattern in 2023，there is a high probability that the global natural rubber supply will maintain low growth or slightly negative growth in 2024，while demand will be flat or slightly increase. The boosting effect brought by the general environment is worth looking forward to. The probability of further upward shifts in the price of natural rubber futures in 2024 is relatively high，but it is difficult to continuously rise sharply，with a fluctuation range of 13000 to 16000 yuan per ton. The listing time of synthetic rubber futures is relatively short，and is greatly affected by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and capital games，so the price fluctuation range of synthetic rubber futures is expected to be large. |
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