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| 2020年天然橡胶期货市场回顾及2021年展望 |
| Review of Natural Rubber Futures Market in 2020 and Outlook in 2021 |
| Received:December 23, 2020 Revised:December 23, 2020 |
| DOI：10.12137/j.issn.2095-5448.2021.02.0057 |
| 中文关键词: 天然橡胶；期货市场；供应；需求 |
| 英文关键词: natural rubber；futures market；supply；demand |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2020年，新冠肺炎疫情对全球终端需求造成了严重冲击，天然橡胶市场在2020年4月初触底，之后持续反弹。2021年，我国天然橡胶市场将呈现供应减少、需求增大、去库存化的特点。表观供应量预计同比下降3%～7%。“汽车下乡”新政将会极大地刺激配套轮胎需求，国内物流复苏、国外需求总量提升也会对国内轮胎需求有所支撑。在内需强劲与外需复苏的双重作用下，天然橡胶需求会维持增长。但轮胎产量基数以及出口订单消退问题可能会使得2021年上半年的供需增长更为强势。拉尼娜现象对于天然橡胶供应的影响集中在第1季度和第2季度初，对天然橡胶价格具有拉升作用。2021年下半年宏观流动性或许会收紧。预计2021年天然橡胶期货市场走势将呈前强后稍弱的格局，现货端全乳胶价格的波动区间为每吨13 000～18 000元，STR20保税人民币价格的波动区间为每吨11 000～16 000元。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In 2020，the COVID-19 caused a serious impact on the global terminal demand，and the natural rubber market hit bottom in early April 2020，and then continued to rebound.In 2021，the natural rubber market in China will show the characteristics of decreasing supply，increasing demand，and destocking.Apparent supply is expected to fall by 3% to 7% year-on-year.The new policy of “cars to the countryside” will greatly stimulate the demand for tires.The recovery of domestic logistics and the increase in total global demand will also support domestic tire demand.Under the dual effects of strong domestic demand and recovery of external demand，demand for natural rubber will maintain growth.However，the decline in the tire production base and export orders may make the supply and demand growth in the first half of 2021 even stronger.The La Ni?a phenomenon’s impact on the supply of natural rubber was concentrated in the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter，which had a boosting effect on the price of natural rubber.Macro liquidity may tighten in the second half of 2021.It is expected that the natural rubber futures market in 2021 will show a pattern of strong in the early stage and slightly weaker in the later stage.The price of all latex on the spot will fluctuate from 13 000 to 18 000 yuan per ton，and the price of STR20 bonded RMB will fluctuate from 11 000 to 16 000 yuan per ton. |
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