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| 天然橡胶期货市场回顾及后市展望 |
| Review and Prospect of Natural Rubber Futures Market |
| Received:January 07, 2020 Revised:January 07, 2020 |
| DOI：10.12137/j.issn.2095-5448.2020.02.0069 |
| 中文关键词: 天然橡胶；期货市场；供应；需求；橡胶期权 |
| 英文关键词: natural rubber；futures market；supply；demand；rubber options |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2019年天然橡胶期货市场起起落落，沪胶价格继续低位震荡。2020年天然橡胶供大于求的局面仍不会发生根本性改变，由极端天气引发的天然橡胶市场行情变动可能会减小，汽车行业可能会在政策支持下再次振兴，尤其重型卡车市场会成为亮点，轮胎企业继续寻求扩大出口。2020年上半年，天然橡胶期货市场可能还会受到2019年异常天气和病害等的余波作用，胶价会达到一个相对的高点，价格底部抬升，但很难出现持续性上涨的市场行情。2020年下半年，随着天然橡胶产量的季节性增长，胶价可能会再次回落。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In 2019, the natural rubber futures market rose and fell, and Shanghai rubber price continued to fluctuate. In 2020, the oversupply of natural rubber will not change fundamentally. The market change of natural rubber caused by extreme weather may be reduced. The automobile industry may be revitalized again with the support of policies, especially the heavy truck market will become a bright spot, and tire enterprises will continue to seek to expand exports. In the first half of 2020, the natural rubber futures market will be affected by abnormal weather and diseases in 2019, the rubber price will reach a relatively high level, and the bottom of the price may rise. However, it is difficult to sustain the increase, and the rubber price may fall again with the seasonal growth of natural rubber production in the second half of 2020. |
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